A small Music City Bowl preview

Well, I'll be traveling here soon, and probably won't be able to revisit the blog until after the Music City Bowl game tomorrow, so I thought I would go ahead and give you my very brief analysis. And let me do my analysis via betting trends.

The line on the game is Clemson favored by 9 1/2. However, the betting public is moving the line towards Kentucky. A quick stat that might tickle your fancy... The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KENTUCKY games 37.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons (11-18). THAT'S ASTOUNDING. That stat right there has got me very nervous about taking Kentucky.

As far as the over-under is concerned, consider this:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in KENTUCKY games 75% of the time over the past 3 seasons (15-5).

TAKE THE OVER at 57 1/2. It should be a high scoring affair.

Here's what I am doing. I'm doing a teaser, taking Clemson at 3 1/2, and taking the OVER at 51 1/2.

It seems like a nice bet to me, and here's why. When looking at bowl games, I look a LOT at coaching staffs and bowl history. How many times has your team going to a bowl in the recent past, and do you consider your coach (JUST YOUR COACH, not your team) better than the opposing coach?

My answers, Kentucky has been to no bowls in the last three years. Clemson has been to one. That's super-important. Clemson knows the month-long bowl routine. It's a lot. An awkward break from the norm at the beginning of December, with just lifting and conditioning. Then a couple weeks of practice, followed by a week of festivities that are WAY outside the norm in the host city.

That makes a difference come game time. An experience that may seem surreal to Kentucky's players has already been experienced by most of Clemson's players.

And when it comes to the better coach? The coach who I would rather have with a month to prepare? Sorry, I'm taking a Bowden.

So tease that Clemson number down, and tease the over down as well. Then, you'll be set.

If you are looking for a straight bet, take the over at 57 1/2. It's a lot of points, but with Kentucky's weak defense, and fairly-potent offense, I expect many points.

EZ MONEY: College Hoops
Record going in: 9-3-1

CLEMSON (-6.5) vs. Georgia
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-12.5) vs. East Carolina
UCLA (-12) vs. Washington State

Record going out: _____